:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2010 Nov 15 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 319 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Nov 2010
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  14/2100Z
to 15/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. Region 1124 (N14W30) produced a
C2/Sf event at 15/0728Z.  This region has grown in area and number
of spots throughout the period.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is forecast to be low
with C-class flares likely for the next 3 days (16-18 November).
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet with isolated periods of
unsettled conditions at mid and high latitudes. The greater than 2
MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during
the period.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly unsettled to active with a slight chance for
an isolated period of minor storming over the next 3 days (16-18
November). This activity is forecast because of elevated solar wind
speeds near 650 km/s and intermittent periods of southward Bz, as
well as a possible glancing blow from the CME on 13 November.
III.  Event Probabilities 16 Nov-18 Nov
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           15 Nov 091
Predicted   16 Nov-18 Nov  090/090/090
90 Day Mean        15 Nov 081
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Nov  005/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Nov  006/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Nov-18 Nov  012/012-012/012-012/012
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Nov-18 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/40/40
Minor storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    05/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                50/50/50
Minor storm           30/30/30
Major-severe storm    05/05/05