:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2010 Dec 15 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 349 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Dec 2010
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  14/2100Z
to 15/2100Z:  Solar activity was low.  Spotless Region 1135 (N18E30)
produced a C5 x-ray flare at 15/0639Z.  The only spotted group on
the visible solar disk is Region 1133 (N13W74).  It is classified as
an H-type group.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low with a slight chance for a C-class flare.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active conditions. 
Observations from the ACE spacecraft indicated a continued influence
from a coronal hole high speed stream.  Solar wind speeds were
averaging just above 600 km/s at the start of the forecast period
and ended with speeds around 550 km/s at reporting time.  The
interplanetary Bz ranged from -/+ 4nT.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels, with isolated active
periods, for the next three days (16-18 December) due to the
continued effects of a coronal hole high speed stream.
III.  Event Probabilities 16 Dec-18 Dec
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           15 Dec 087
Predicted   16 Dec-18 Dec  087/086/084
90 Day Mean        15 Dec 083
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Dec  010/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Dec  009/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Dec-18 Dec  007/008-005/005-007/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Dec-18 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/05/10
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    02/01/02
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/05/15
Minor storm           05/01/05
Major-severe storm    02/02/02