:Product: 0224RSGA.txt :Issued: 2012 Feb 24 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 055 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Feb 2012 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. An asymmetrical, halo CME was observed in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery beginning at 24/0346Z. The associated event was a filament eruption centered near N32E38 which was observed in SDO/AIA 304 imagery beginning at 24/0225Z. New Region 1424 (N09E68) rotated on the East limb and was numbered. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for C-class activity for the next three days (25 - 27 February). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet. Solar wind speeds at the ACE spacecraft ranged from approximately 400 - 460 km/s while the Bz component of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field did not vary much beyond +/- 5 nT. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet on days 1 and 2 (25 - 26 February). A glancing blow from todays CME is expected to become geoeffective early on day 3 (27 February) causing unsettled to active periods with isolated minor storm periods possible. III. Event Probabilities 25 Feb-27 Feb Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 24 Feb 109 Predicted 25 Feb-27 Feb 105/100/100 90 Day Mean 24 Feb 129 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 23 Feb 003/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Feb 003/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Feb-27 Feb 004/005-004/005-011/015 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Feb-27 Feb A. Middle Latitudes Active 05/05/25 Minor storm 01/01/10 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/30 Minor storm 10/10/25 Major-severe storm 01/01/15