:Product: 0401RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2012 Apr 01 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 092 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Apr 2012
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  31/2100Z
to 01/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low.  Only minor B-class/Sf
flares were observed, one from Region 1444 (N21W86) at 31/2107 and
from 1450 (N17E22) at 01/1454Z.  The event from Region 1444 was
associated with a narrow eruption visible in SDO/AIA 304 imagery. 
The ejecta is not expected to be geoeffective.  The remaining
regions were quiet and magnetically simple.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low with a slight chance for a C-class flare for the first
two days of the period (02-03 April).  The probability of a C class
event increases on Day 3 (04 April) with the anticipated return of
Old Region 1434 (S22 L=207).
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z:
The geomagneic field was quiet.  Solar wind speed measured at the ACE
spacecraft gradually declined from around 380 km/s at the beginning
of the period to about 320 km/s by the end.  At approximately
01/0800Z, ACE indicated a solar sector boundary crossing to a
negative orientation accompanied by increased density and slight (-5
nT) southward Bz.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to begin the period at quiet levels.  On Day 3 (04 April),
it will become unsettled with the possiblity of an isolated active
period as a coronal hole high speed stream becomes geoeffective.
III.  Event Probabilities 02 Apr-04 Apr
Class M    05/05/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           01 Apr 107
Predicted   02 Apr-04 Apr  110/115/125
90 Day Mean        01 Apr 118
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 31 Mar  004/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Apr  006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Apr-04 Apr  006/005-006/005-007/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Apr-04 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/05/10
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/20
Minor storm           15/15/25
Major-severe storm    05/05/15