:Product: 0408RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2012 Apr 08 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 099 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Apr 2012
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  07/2100Z
to 08/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low. Occasional B-class flares
occurred. A filament erupted from the northwest quadrant during
approximately 07/1825 - 1900Z. The eruption was associated with a
partial-halo CME with an estimated plane of sky speed of 690 km/s.
Most of the CME mass appeared to be directed southwestward of Earth
and is not expected to be significantly geoeffective. No new regions
were numbered.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low during days 1 - 3 (09 - 11 April) with a chance for an isolated
C-class flare.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled levels on day 1 (09 April) with a chance
for active levels due to a CME passage that is expected to begin
early in the day. There will also be a chance for minor storm levels
at high latitudes on day 1. Field activity is expected to decrease
to quiet to unsettled levels during days 2 - 3 (10 - 11 April).
III.  Event Probabilities 09 Apr-11 Apr
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           08 Apr 093
Predicted   09 Apr-11 Apr  095/095/095
90 Day Mean        08 Apr 115
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Apr  003/014
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Apr  006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Apr-11 Apr  013/015-006/008-007/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Apr-11 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/15/15
Minor storm           05/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/15/20
Minor storm           35/10/25
Major-severe storm    30/05/15