:Product: 0427RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2012 Apr 27 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 118 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Apr 2012
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  26/2100Z
to 27/2100Z:  Solar activity was at moderate levels due to an M1/1n
flare at 27/0824Z from Region 1466 (N11W38). Other activity
consisted of single, low-level C-class flares from Regions 1459
(S19W88), 1465 (S17W53), 1467 (N11E32), 1469 (S24E28) and 1466.
During the period, Region 1465 developed into a beta-gamma-delta
magnetic configuration while the remaining regions showed little
change. Numerous non-Earth directed CMEs were observed off the SW
limb over the past 24 hours, all originating from old Region 1462
(S25, L=139) which rotated around the west on 24 April.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
with a slight chance for M-class activity for the next three days
(28 - 30 April).
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. Through the
period, ACE solar wind velocities steadily decreased from about 560
km/s to near 500km/s while the Bz component of the interplanetary
magnetic field was variable between +/-4 nT. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels throughout
the period.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominately quiet levels for the next three days
(28 - 30 April).
III.  Event Probabilities 28 Apr-30 Apr
Class M    20/20/20
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           27 Apr 118
Predicted   28 Apr-30 Apr  115/110/110
90 Day Mean        27 Apr 112
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Apr  017/020
Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Apr  006/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Apr-30 Apr  004/005-004/005-004/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Apr-30 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/10/01