:Product: 0430RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2012 Apr 30 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 121 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Apr 2012
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  29/2100Z
to 30/2100Z:  Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24
hours. Before rotating off the west limb of the solar disk, Region
1465 (S18W95) produced a long duration C3 x-ray flare at 30/0738Z.
Associated with this event were both a Type II radio sweep
(estimated shock velocity of 645 km/s) and a non-Earth directed CME.
Region 1471 (S22E45) also produced multiple C-class events and
appears to be growing in sunspot area and magnetic complexity as it
rotates further into view. No new sunspot regions were numbered
today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels for the next three days (01 - 03 May).
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speeds, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, remained at
nominal levels throughout the summary period.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels for days one and two (01
- 02 May) as a coronal hole high speed stream moves into a
geoeffective position. A return to quiet levels is expected on day
three (03 May) as the effects of the high speed stream wane.
III.  Event Probabilities 01 May-03 May
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           30 Apr 114
Predicted   01 May-03 May  115/115/115
90 Day Mean        30 Apr 112
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Apr  005/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Apr  002/003
Predicted Afr/Ap 01 May-03 May  007/008-007/008-004/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 May-03 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/15/10
Minor storm           05/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/25/15
Minor storm           10/10/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01