:Product: 0813RSGA.txt :Issued: 2012 Aug 13 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 226 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Aug 2012 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Region 1543 (N20W05) produced the largest event of the period, a C2 flare at 13/1240Z, with associated Type II (estimated velocity of 736 km/s) and Type IV radio sweeps. Analysis is underway to determine the potential geoeffectiveness of a possible CME associated with this flare as more data becomes available. Region 1543 also produced a C1/Sf at 13/0413Z, with an associated Type IV radio sweep. Regions 1543 and 1542 (S12W18) were generally unchanged and have beta-gamma magnetic configuration. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for an isolated M-class flare. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled with a slight chance for an active period on day 1 (14 August) due to a high speed stream from a coronal hole. Days 2 and 3 (15 - 16 August) are expected to be at predominately quiet levels. III. Event Probabilities 14 Aug-16 Aug Class M 15/15/15 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF Green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 13 Aug 108 Predicted 14 Aug-16 Aug 105/105/100 90 Day Mean 13 Aug 127 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 12 Aug 007/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Aug 007/009 Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Aug-16 Aug 009/008-006/005-005/005 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Aug-16 Aug A. Middle Latitudes Active 15/05/05 Minor storm 05/01/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor storm 20/15/15 Major-severe storm 15/05/05