:Product: 0821RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2012 Aug 21 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 234 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Aug 2012
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  20/2100Z
to 21/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low. A few low level B-class
flares were observed. Three new regions were numbered: Region 1550
(S11W81) a Bxo-beta type group; Region 1551 (N13W14) a Bxo-beta type
group; and Region 1552 (S18E54) an Hsx-alpha type group. The
remaining numbered regions were stable and quiet. Several CMEs were
observed however none appear to be Earth-directed.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low for the next three days (22-24 August).
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux
at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominately quiet for days 1-3 (22-24 August).
III.  Event Probabilities 22 Aug-24 Aug
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           21 Aug 094
Predicted   22 Aug-24 Aug  095/095/100
90 Day Mean        21 Aug 124
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Aug  011/013
Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Aug  007/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Aug-24 Aug  006/005-006/005-006/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Aug-24 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/05/05
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor storm           15/15/10
Major-severe storm    05/05/05