:Product: 0825RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2012 Aug 25 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 238 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Aug 2012
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  24/2100Z
to 25/2100Z:  Solar activity was low.  Region 1554 (N15W00) produced
one C1/Sf flare at 0236Z.  No CMEs observed in the past 24 hours are
expected to be geoeffective.  New Region 1555 (N09E69) was numbered
overnight and has developed into a Dao type spot group with a beta
magnetic configuration.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low with a chance for C-class activity.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z:
Geomagnetic activity was at quiet to unsettled levels with two
periods of active to major storm levels at high latitudes.  Solar
wind velocity increased to around 600 km/s with the arrival of a
coronal hole high speed stream.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  Geomagnetic activity is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels with a slight chance for
active to major storm levels at high latitudes on 26 August due to
residual coronal hole high speed stream effects.  Activity is
expected to decline to mostly quiet levels with a slight chance for
active to minor storm levels at high latitudes on 27 August.  On day
3 (28 August) conditions are expected to return to quiet to
unsettled levels with a chance for minor to major storm levels due
to the arrival of another negative polarity coronal hole.
III.  Event Probabilities 26 Aug-28 Aug
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           25 Aug 106
Predicted   26 Aug-28 Aug  110/110/110
90 Day Mean        25 Aug 124
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Aug  009/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Aug  008/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Aug-28 Aug  007/008-005/005-007/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Aug-28 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/05/15
Minor storm           05/01/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor storm           20/15/25
Major-severe storm    20/05/25