:Product: 1029RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2014 Oct 29 2245 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 302 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Oct 2014

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to
29/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
29/1433Z from Region 2192 (S12W84). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on day one (30 Oct) and likely to be
low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class
flare on day two (31 Oct) and likely to be low with a slight chance for
an M-class flare on day three (01 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
454 km/s at 28/2128Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 28/2143Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 28/2349Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1466 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (30 Oct) and quiet to
unsettled levels on days two and three (31 Oct, 01 Nov). Protons greater
than 10 Mev have a chance of crossing threshold on day one (30 Oct) and
have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day two (31 Oct).

III.  Event probabilities 30 Oct-01 Nov
Class M    65/25/10
Class X    35/20/05
Proton     35/20/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           29 Oct 150
Predicted   30 Oct-01 Nov 145/135/135
90 Day Mean        29 Oct 142

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Oct  011/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Oct  008/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Oct-01 Nov  011/012-008/008-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Oct-01 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/25/15
Minor Storm           10/10/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/25/25
Major-severe storm    40/35/25