:Product: 0108RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2015 Jan 08 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 8 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Jan 2015

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z to
08/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at
08/0434Z from Region 2253 (S06W57). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (09 Jan, 10 Jan, 11 Jan).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
583 km/s at 08/0040Z. Total IMF reached 13 nT at 08/0048Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 08/1344Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (09 Jan) and quiet to
unsettled levels on days two and three (10 Jan, 11 Jan).

III.  Event probabilities 09 Jan-11 Jan
Class M    50/50/50
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           08 Jan 157
Predicted   09 Jan-11 Jan 160/165/165
90 Day Mean        08 Jan 158

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Jan  023/033
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Jan  016/018
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Jan-11 Jan  013/015-010/010-007/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Jan-11 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/20/20
Minor Storm           10/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/25/25
Major-severe storm    40/30/30