:Product: 0619RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2015 Jun 19 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 170 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Jun 2015

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z to
19/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C8 event observed at
19/0927Z from Region 2371 (N13E27). There are currently 2 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(20 Jun, 21 Jun, 22 Jun).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
444 km/s at 18/2115Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 19/1148Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 19/0948Z. Protons greater
than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 12 pfu at
18/2125Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 1057 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (20 Jun), quiet to unsettled levels on
day two (21 Jun) and quiet to minor storm levels on day three (22 Jun).
Protons have a chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three
(20 Jun, 21 Jun, 22 Jun).

III.  Event probabilities 20 Jun-22 Jun
Class M    70/70/60
Class X    15/15/10
Proton     40/40/40
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           19 Jun 137
Predicted   20 Jun-22 Jun 140/140/140
90 Day Mean        19 Jun 127

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Jun   011/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Jun  005/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Jun-22 Jun  006/005-007/008-019/025

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Jun-22 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/05/40
Minor Storm           01/01/25
Major-severe storm    01/01/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/10
Minor Storm           15/15/20
Major-severe storm    10/10/65