:Product: 0414RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2016 Apr 14 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 105 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Apr 2016

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to
14/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
13/2343Z from Region 2529 (N09E00). There are currently 3 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (15 Apr,
16 Apr, 17 Apr).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 548 km/s at 13/2145Z. Total IMF
reached 9 nT at 14/0829Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-8 nT at 14/0905Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 5141 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (15 Apr) and quiet to
unsettled levels on days two and three (16 Apr, 17 Apr).

III.  Event probabilities 15 Apr-17 Apr
Class M    15/15/15
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           14 Apr 111
Predicted   15 Apr-17 Apr 110/110/110
90 Day Mean        14 Apr 098

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Apr  016/025
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Apr  016/024
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Apr-17 Apr  010/012-007/008-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Apr-17 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/20/20
Minor Storm           10/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/25/25
Major-severe storm    45/25/25