:Product: 1027RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2016 Oct 27 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 301 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Oct 2016

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26/2100Z to
27/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (28
Oct, 29 Oct, 30 Oct).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 731 km/s at 26/2121Z. Total IMF
reached 6 nT at 27/2025Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-5 nT at 27/1835Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 47726 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (28 Oct) and quiet
to active levels on days two and three (29 Oct, 30 Oct).

III.  Event probabilities 28 Oct-30 Oct
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           27 Oct 079
Predicted   28 Oct-30 Oct 078/078/080
90 Day Mean        27 Oct 086

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Oct  031/044
Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Oct  023/030
Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Oct-30 Oct  017/024-015/018-014/016

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Oct-30 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/30/20
Minor Storm           10/10/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    20/20/20